Top Three Areas of Concern for 2010

While numerous conflicts are ongoing or imminent across the globe, from a perspective of genocide and crimes against humanity, three stand out as particularly troubling in 2010. The risk of an extreme escalation of civilian atrocities in multiple regions of Sudan and the DRC is heightened even further with the presence of the Lord's Resistance Army in both of the countries -- the conflicts listed below are thus not only tenuous in their own right, but have regional implications that amplify any threat of escalation, with millions of civilians at the mercy of numerous armed factions.

Sudan will be the nation to watch, especially in the early months of 2010, as the country's multi-layered crises will be even further stressed, raising the real possibility of violent fractures on multiple fronts, both regional and nation-wide. Key areas to watch will be Darfur, where rebels may see an escalation of conflict as a means to strengthen their negotiating position; inter-ethnic conflict in Southern Sudan, which increasingly seems to be co-opted by national-level actors; the threat of the Lord's Resistance Army rampaging through the south and Darfur; and finally, the run-up to and event of the national elections scheduled for April, if they happen, where any number of issues could instigate violence, with the worst case scenario of a return to full-scale civil war between the North and the South increasing as 2011 referendum on southern independence draws nearer.

The Lord's Resistance Army (LRA), from Northern Uganda but currently operating from a base in the northern Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC): Joseph Kony's rebels seem to be fighting more as a way of life now than for any ideology or political aim, making the prospects of negotiating a ceasefire somewhat dim. In addition to perpetrating horrific atrocities against civilians in the DRC and Central African Republic (CAR) over the past year, LRA fighters are currently targeting civilians in Southern Sudan and Darfur, possibly with the backing of the ruling National Congress Party (NCP) in Khartoum, with the likely goal of further destabilizing the two troublesome regions.

The people of the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) have suffered incredible violence at the hands of multiple armed factions, including their own national military, and proffered solutions for improved civilian protection require more self-critical political will than the Congolese government currently seems willing to exercise. A re-evaluation of the mandate and operations of the UN peacekeeping mission, MONUC, could result in significant progress, however, if it is properly supported by all of the relevant stakeholders. Multiple threats to civilians must be neutralized in order for the security situation to improve.

[UN Photo/Tim McKulka: An elderly woman, internally displaced from her home in Abyei , receives her ration of emergency food aid.]