Top Trends 2009 #5: Mobile Technology
Number five on the list of the trends that will shape social entrepreneurship in 2009 is mobile technology. One need look no further than the incredible discussion around the recent post "The Cellphone that Could Change the World," to understand how seriously people are taking the idea that mobile technology can, should, and well, will change the world.
2008 has seen an explosion of creativity around how mobiles can be used to increase wealth, fight hunger, and mitigate conflict. There are a number of forces that I see propelling the conversation in 2009:
Twitter
While SMS technology has been around for as long as I've been around cellphones, it's Twitter (along with Facebook Status updates, FriendFeed, and the like) that has really amplified the sociological resonance of short messaging as a medium to share everything from nonprofit updates to life minutiae. While their decision to discontinue free SMS messaging outside of a few select countries has had significant impact for the tool's utility to developing world activists, Twitter is the fastest growing social network, has exploded as a force for fundraising, and has seems to have barely scratched the surface of its potential.
iPhone
There is no phone with a brand more aspirational than the iPhone. The device that puts the whole world in your pocket has put incredible pressure on the mobile industry to innovate, particularly around providing affordable internet-ready phones. Its application platform has provided an infrastructure for creative developers around the world. And it has helped folks outside the industry (such as myself) begin to understand the raw power of the hand-held device.
Mobile penetration
There is an oft-repeated statistic that Nairobi sends more SMS messages every day than does New York City. While internet penetration lags behind, pay-as-you-go mobile service providers and cheap handsets proliferate even the poorest communities. The prevalence of mobile phones in even remote areas has unleashed entrepreneurial creativity.
Lack of good information
Within the context of the development and aid world, there is often a lack of good, up-to-date information. The information gap is the driving force behind platforms like Ushahidi and FrontlineSMS that attempt to help emergency responders, development organizations, and others collect data from a wide array of sources to design or adjust interventions.
Emergent appreciation of crowdsourcing
There is a growing appreciation of "crowdsourcing," or using data from a wide array of sources to solve problems and/or create meaning. In the context of international development, crowdsourcing could mean enabling any one with a mobile to report violence during a conflict situation (as the Ushahidi platform is designed to do), giving the beneficiaries of aid programs the chance to report directly on a program's success, or something else entirely.
Market opportunities
There is a large and growing interest in the "Bottom of the Pyramid" market - or the market of consumers who live on just a few dollars a day. Google provides free email addresses to people who use Safaricom mobile in Kenya; Nokia is designing a cheap internet ready phone for Africa and the developing world. These market opportunities are spurring innovation.
Emergent platforms and industry information sources
Finally, and perhaps most importantly, people are making it happen by developing platforms and applications. What's more, a growing number of people are recording the progress of the movement. Ushahidi, FrontlineSMS, RapidSMS and others all saw pilot deployments this year. At the same time, sites like Mobile Active and Appfrica provided incredible coverage of the development of the field. Together these organizations are providing inspiration for a new generation of mobile social entrepreneurs.
And the biggest challenge? SMS is absurdly expensive relative to how much data is actually being transferred. This cost is extremely prohibitive to sending mass messages in the developing world. When I tried to help introduce FrontlineSMS as an organizing tool for refugees in Cairo, the cost was an insurmountable barrier.
Predictions for 2009:
- One of the platforms will be deployed in a real-time crisis situation, with significant positive outcomes
- There will be a growing chorus of people who want common standards and interoperability so the impact and effectiveness of platforms is not limited by their individual universality
- It will become increasingly standard for international nonprofits to use short messaging to collect and distribute data
- Someone will design a social impact assessment tool based on allowing beneficiaries to SMS their opinions to a central database
- The health sector will be the leader in integrating mobile technology into its processes
- And my big dream: Some upstart service providers take on the entrenched business models by making SMS cheap for developing world consumers and using some other strategy to create financial value from their phone use.
Further reading:
Nathaniel Whittemore
is the founder of Assetmap. Previously he was the founding director of the Northwestern University Center for Global Engagement.
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