Tournament of Pandemics: The Winner

by Alanna Shaikh · 2009-03-31 13:56:00 UTC
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(photo credit: Terren in Virginia)

So, this is it. Our final match in the tournament of pandemics:influenza vs. tuberculosis. We started with sixteen competitors, and we're down to these two diseases.

Tuberculosis and influenza have a lot in common, although TB is bacterial and influenza is a virus. Both global in reach and extremely infectious. Both require special infection control measures and have animal reservoirs. They both have vaccines that aren't completely effective, and they are both showing resistance to first line treatments.

They do have some unique strengths. Influenza has gone pandemic in the past, and the mortality rate for humans infected with avian influenza is pretty much 100%. Tuberculosis has a really long infectious period, requires extended treatment, and puts health care providers at exceptional risk. It's also hard to diagnoses in low-resource environments.

The Winner

This is a very close match. Both tuberculosis and influenza clearly have what it takes to become a global pandemic.  But which one is more likely to do so?

Tuberculosis. There's no way around it. Influenza is one mutation away from global devastation, and it's a virus prone to mutation. But tuberculosis is devastating now. We're already facing multi-drug resistant tuberculosis and extensively drug resistant tuberculosis. In fact, you could make a credible argument that tuberculosis is already a global pandemic.

Therefore: tuberculosis takes the cup for next global pandemic, since it's already here.

Alanna Shaikh
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