Tracking: End-Game in Sri Lanka?

Currently the worst place in the world is a small strip of land in northern Sri Lanka, where tens of thousands of civilians remain trapped on the front lines between the Sri Lankan army and the rebel Tamil Tigers.  According to the UN, over 6,400 civilians have been killed in the fighting since late January.

Since the last post on Sri Lanka Friday the situation has continued to deteriorate.

Developments over the weekend:

- What to do when you're a) outnumbered, b) outgunned, c) surrounded, and d) trapped on an ever-shrinking sliver of land, caught between the Sri Lankan military and the ocean?  That's right, declare a "unilateral cease-fire", as the Tigers tried to do this weekend.  (Or, as it seemed to translate - "but seriously, can't we just call this a draw?")

The Tigers insisted that their action was prompted by the humanitarian crisis - a crisis partially of their own making, given their penchant for using civilians as human shields, and shooting at those who tried to flee across the front lines.

The Sri Lankan Government responded by calling the ceasefire proposal a "joke".

- For its part, the Sri Lankan military promised to stop using heavy weapons, artillery and airstrikes, in order to minimize civilian casualties.  Then again, the promise does pose something of a logical quandry, seeing as how  they had already stated that they weren't using heavy weapons.

Which leads to one of two conclusions: a) the Sri Lankan military has promised to stop doing something it wasn't doing anyway, or b) the Sri Lankan military had earlier lied about using heavy weapons, but this time they're really serious about doing their best not to kill civilians.

Or, as the BBC so tactfully explains: "This new statement [by the Sri Lankan Government], however, does appear to acknowledge that civilians have been harmed as aid agencies and the UN have been saying, our correspondent says."

[N.B. - in case it's not clear from the above, I have little sympathy - and no love lost - for either side, both of whom seem to justify massive civilian casualties under the "breaking a few eggs to make an omelette" approach.]

More information on the humanitarian situation after the jump:

- Speaking of civilian casualties - the UN still estimates that as many as 50,000 people are trapped behind the Tigers front lines; the Sri Lankan army puts the figure at 15,000.

The Tigers warn that food stocks are almost exhausted, and that "starvation [is] imminent".  For its part, the UN is warning that civilians trapped in Tiger-controlled territory lack food, clean water and medical supplies.

[As the New York Times notes, it's "difficult to verify" the situation, as the Sri Lankan Government has barred journalists and aid workers from the front lines.]

- The condition of those who've been able to flee provides brutal testimony of just how dire the situation has become.   According to the New York Times:

"Tim Pruchnic, an American surgeon working at a hospital in the northern town of Vavuniya, said in a telephone interview that many of his patients were so weak they were dying after operations that would not normally be life threatening.

After months in the combat zone, patients are exhausted, malnourished and dehydrated, said Dr. Pruchnic, who works with the aid group Doctors Without Borders.

...

'The old don’t seem to make it here,' he said. 'There’s a few. But I think they’re mostly dying on the way.'"

An Al Jazeera correspondent paints a similar picture:

"We have heard from many people that humanitarian supplies still around were being taken by the Tamil Tigers and sold to the people [displaced by fighting].

Many of the people I saw were in an advanced state of dehydration. Many of the older people were extremely malnourished and you can only imagine what it is like for the children trapped inside the conflict zone."

- For more background information, see this recent report by Reuters, as well as this timeline of the Sri Lankan civil war to date.

[Photo from AFP / BBC - according to the caption: "This undated photo released by pro-Tamil media reportedly shows a government air strike inside a no-fire zone and civilians fleeing"]