Two Steps Forward, Two Back in Congo

[Laurent Nkunda arrested - Story from France 24, with thanks to UN Dispatch]

How you view the recent news from Congo depends on your capacity for unfounded optimism.

It's tempting to rejoice at the news that Rwandan forces captured Congolese warlord Laurent Nkunda yesterday.

Especially seeing as how a) Nkunda's rebel forces overran the Congolese army in North Kivu province late last year, causing over 250,000 civilians to flee their homes, and b) Rwanda itself until recently supported Nkunda.

(Though, in Nkunda's defense, he was quite the fashionista.)

And then comes reality.  The best analysis of the situation that I've read comes from Colin Thomas-Jensen at the Enough Project, explaining why the Rwandans suddenly turned on Nkunda.  As Colin writes:

"Congolese officials sought Rwandan help to get rid of Nkunda. The quid pro quo: the Rwandan military would be allowed to re-enter eastern Congo to hunt down the Democratic Forces for the Liberation of Rwanda, or FDLR, a Rwandan Hutu rebel group led by commanders responsible for the 1994 Rwanda Genocide. In a fantastically cynical move, the two sides also agreed that indicted war criminal Bosco Ntaganda would replace Nkunda as head of CNDP [N.B. - the CNDP was Nkunda's rebel movement], and that his forces would join in the offensive against the FDLR."

(UN Dispatch also offers an excellent analysis of the situation.)

Which, in simple terms, means that it's a bad time to be a civilian - especially a Hutu civilian - in eastern Congo.

Granted, it's almost never a good time to be a civilian in eastern Congo, but now even more so.  According to a statement released Friday by the UN High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR):

"UNHCR views with some concern the latest developments and the military build-up in the troubled North Kivu province of the eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC)...Drawing from our past experience in this region, we fear that these operations could create new and massive displacement of the civilian population. The humanitarian situation in North Kivu is already dramatic, with some 850,000 internally displaced people (IDPs)."

Save the Children echoed these concerns:

"The humanitarian crisis in DRC is likely to intensify as Rwandan troops, supported by the Congolese army, prepare to attack Congo's Hutu militia group, the FDLR. The attacks could be disastrous for families living with or near FDLR fighters, as they too are likely to be sucked into the fighting.

[According to the Country Director for Save the Children:] "Any attacks by the Rwandan troops could make a major humanitarian crisis even worse. Around 850,000 people have been forced to flee their homes in north Kivu, eastern Congo, and we believe this impending fighting could add 150,000 more."

A series of events which is all the more troubling, considering the difficulties aid agencies faced trying to reach civilians displaced by the fighting in late 2008.