Unrest in Sudan: Another Iran in the Making?

I knew that as soon as I committed to a week of related thematic posts, something big would happen somewhere in the world to derail my plans, akin to the luck I had with Obama's Sudan policy review release while I was on my only vacation of the year. So it goes.

Interesting developments in Sudan today are, however, a worthy diversion: What started out as a peaceful protest against the authoritarian rule of President Omar al-Bashir's National Congress Party (NCP) this morning was quickly met with tear gas-happy riot police and numerous arrests, including several prominent opposition figures.

The demonstrators, led by a coalition of opposition groups and the new student movement Girifna (Arabic for "We're fed up!"), are calling for reform of the state's oppressive security laws and other restrictions of political freedoms ahead of national elections next year.

Amnesty International has already received reports that those detained -- current estimates claim over 200 people -- have been tortured while in custody. (Not terribly surprising, given the government's rap sheet.) Opponents of the NCP responded to the arrests by setting fire to local party offices in South Sudan -- an indication of how mounting tension can quickly escalate into serious violence and destruction.

It will be interesting to see how the situation develops: Will protests continue to mount, as they did in Iran, or will the brutality of Sudanese security forces quickly squash the dissent? Either way, Khartoum's harsh reaction today is yet another indicator that the regime is not at all interested in democratic transformation, or anything that threatens its hold on power -- and given the heightened international attention currently on the regime as diplomats scurry to prevent the resumption of civil war with the South and push for a peace agreement for Darfur, the drastic and very public measures used to punish the opposition today were a very bold, if not unsurprising, move.

The Sudanese government is resistant to change, and will continue to rule by the barrel of a gun so long as they can do so with impunity. Whatever progress US Special Envoy Scott Gration claims has been made over the past few months, today's events reveal that substantial hurdles to peace and democracy are firmly in place. Perhaps it will serve as a wake up call to the fact that Khartoum is not negotiating in good faith.

[Photo: Girifna. For video of the protest, see Al Jazeera.]