Warning Bells in Zimbabwe

Who's the dirty rotten dictator gaming to earn his country a spot alongside Sudan, Congo, Sri Lanka, and Burma for its astounding, crimes against humanity-level, violence against civilians? Bobby Mugabe, come on down.

While life for many Zimbabweans has certainly improved since their octogenarian dictator-in-chief Robert Mugabe was forced into a unity transition government with his political rivals, Mugabe and his ZANU-PF party have spent most of the last year spoiling the agreement in almost any way possible. Now, with talk of possible elections next year coupled with rumors of militia recruitment and arms stockpiling, anxieties over ZANU's less-than-democratic intentions are rising once again. Prime Minister Morgan Tsvangirai, of the opposition party, is even calling for international peacekeeping troops and monitors ahead of the polls.

Mugabe and his thugs show no bones about using violence to achieve their political aims. He consolidated power early on in his regime through an ethnic cleansing campaign known as the "Gukurahundi," and every sham election over the past decade has been coupled with a spike in politically-motivated violence. The aftermath of elections in 2008 were particularly brutal: Houses burned, torture camps rolled out across the country, human rights activists and opposition party supporters disappeared left and right, women subjected to systematic sexual violence.

If there's one single best indicator of where violence and conflict are likely to occur in the future, it's looking at where it's occurred in the past. Anyone with a mass atrocity prevention agenda should have all eyes on Zim: History is looking to repeat itself in Zimbabwe, and the warning bells are already sounding.

Photo credit: US Navy