What Do Somalia and Southern Russia Have in Common?

Today's deadly metro bombings in Moscow, Russia, along with the street protests in Somalia, re-confirm ideas I have on the nature of chronic war. Largely, the radical terror wielders are at fault, but the government protectors and general public could do much more to prevent cyclical return to conflict. Sri Lanka, Afghanistan, and many other places with chronic war follow similar patterns.

Most people agree that any organization that would encourage men or women to walk into a subway station and kill innocent people, for any political goal, is morally bankrupt. Yet thousands of people, including wealthy financiers, do support these activities.

Many, but for some reason less than those above, also believe that the use of aerial bombardment, artillery, mortars, and cluster bombs on targets in civilian neighborhoods is also morally bankrupt. Trouble is, the wielders of the strike bomber and missile believe that their weapons are more acceptable because the civilians they kill are killed by accident in the course of killing bad guys. Sadly, it is the killing of civilians by these weapons that serves as the justification by many terror wielders for targeting civilians.

So you have two sides using heavy weapons and killing civilians, with one side claiming to protect and killing civilians by accident, and the other side claiming to avenge and killing civilians on purpose. But aren't there millions of people who don't agree with either side, or at least disagree with those who intend harm on the innocent?

In southern Russia, the Chechen Wars transformed from nationalist struggles of moderate people trying to become independent into a wide regional anti-everything insurgency in which radicals and their followers make hit and run attacks against the Russian and regional governments with the hope of triggering a wide revolt of the minority groups against Russia. Many of those who disagree with Russian domination or supported the nationalist struggle are disgusted by the radical civilian-killers. But many remain silent, unwilling to oppose the only major political force willing to work on their behalf.

In Somalia, the complex civil wars have transformed largely into the same anti-everything kind of insurgency. Radicals with no functional political ideas to put forward simply kill for vengeance and power while the government(s) and its backers try to contain them, only to catch civilians in the crossfire. Again, many of the conservative citizens have long been silent, almost consensual of the radical civilian-killers because they did not believe that anyone else was genuinely trying to fight on their behalf.

Finally, after twenty years of these wars, a few groups of street protesters in Mogadishu have come out against the radicals specifically arguing that they need a group to protect them and that the radicals have lied and misled them, that their methods were not justified despite their collective goals.

For centuries up to the present time, governments and diplomats have made a very dangerous mistake by assuming the people must be either "with us or against us." When negotiation tables are set, for some reason only the fighting groups, often the two extremes, are represented and not the peaceful majority. When the news stories run, often the conflict is boiled down to two sides. But on the ground, it's very foggy. People only fall to one side or the other when forced to.

It has been Russia's dangerous habit after a bombing attack as we read about today to frame the situation as one of Russia against the south, Russia against insurgents, or Russia against the Muslim opposition. Many, if not most people along the south, do not agree with any of the political sides, but if they are accused of being part of the insurgency based on the fact that they do not agree with the Kremlin or the local governments, then they will need to support the insurgents for their survival. Russia will do best to bleed the insurgency of the many, many people who do not like extremist tactics by permitting other forms of opposition to represent them. It's a delicate task, but vital.

For the past decade, Russia and its southern allies in government have frowned upon, if not actively sought to kill, opposition activists trying to do what the street protesters did today in Mogadishu. But it could be the only way left to weaken those who bomb metros or bus stations.

Photo credit: Daniel J Gerstle (A looted school in Sahil, Somalia)