Why the "Don't Ask, Don't Tell" Survey Is Meaningless

by Adam Amir · 2010-07-21 20:34:00 UTC
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To much fanfare, the Pentagon released a survey to 400,000 active and reserve troops, asking about the effects of Don’t Ask Don’t Tell (DADT). Even if the survey did not pose bias-inducing and offensive questions, it is statistically meaningless.

Because troops serve in an environment where many must remain closeted, surveyed soldiers could not accurately comment on the effect of a DADT repeal. Even if sexuality affects morale (which empirical evidence shows is false), it would surely affect morale and cohesion differently when troops are open about themselves. Since troops must serve in the closet, the survey respondents cannot possibly determine the effect of gays serving openly.

Nate Silver offers a good analogy. The survey is “like trying to anticipate a community's attitude toward a potential influx of Russian immigrants by asking them whether there are any Russian spies around, and if so, what impact they're having on the neighborhood,” he said.

However, even if the survey were methodologically sound, its results should not matter. They sure didn't when Harry S. Truman desegregated the armed forces in 1948. Because when Truman did poll white soldiers, their answers reflected prevailing racist attitudes — 85% of white soldiers wanted to keep the military segregated. Regardless, Truman dropped the integration-bomb.

Over at Think Progress, Igor Volsky dug up these postwar-era surveys from the National Archives and reported interesting similarities. “In some instances one can even replace ‘negro’ for ‘gay’ and end up with today’s questionnaire,” Volsky said. Examples of similar questions included whether servicemembers “objected to working alongside minorities” and “how effective minorities are in combat.”

But what about the opinions of civilians? In the year leading up to Truman’s executive order, a Gallup poll showed that 63% of civilian respondents approved of a segregated military. Nowadays, many more civilians support the repeal of DADT, about  75%, according to a Washington Post poll. So what's the hold up?

Photo credit: The U.S. Army

Adam Amir is a Harry S. Truman Scholar and recent graduate of the University of Florida. He will work for the New York City Mayor as a part of the Urban Fellows program.
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