Why The Sudanese Government Does What It Does

For those with masochistic tendencies, there are any number of ways to keep amused.  Trying to comprehend infinity.  Trying to calculate the end of pi.  Or, my personal favorite, trying to understand why the Sudanese Government does what it does.

Such as, say, crippling humanitarian operations in Darfur.

And, more recently, threatening to expel all international aid agencies within the year.  (In President Omar Bashir's own words: "We need to clear our country of any spies.")

As someone with a great deal of Sudan experience once told me, Sudanese leaders aren't guided by ideology so much as a simple, overwhelming desire to stay in power.  The only question that really matters is "what do I have to do to ensure that I stay in power today, and hopefully tomorrow".

Which at least provides some context for trying to understand President Omar Bashir's latest threats against NGOs.  As an excellent article by Heba Aly in the Christian Science Monitor explains:

"Getting rid of aid workers would help dissolve the dozens of camps in Darfur that house some 2.7 million people displaced by the conflict, who come for safety and humanitarian relief. The government says the camps are bastions of instability, where rebels are fed and housed and their weapons illegally harbored.

'The government still wants to win the war,' says Colin Thomas-Jensen, policy adviser, at the Washington-based Enough project, which aims to prevent genocide. 'They want to make the humanitarian situation go away.'

By decreasing the level of aid in the camps, he says, the government will force people to leave, removing threats to its security and reducing rebel recruitment grounds. Driving out aid workers would also ensure that no one was around to watch if violence broke out."

Or, as Alex de Waal recently summed up the situation: "By expelling NGOs, you remove the main witnesses of whatever happens."

[Sudanese President Omar Bashir and his ever-handy cane - Photo from AP]