Will Displaced Sudanese Vote in Next Month's Election?

The advocacy organization IDP Action (IPD = Internally-Displaced Persons), just released an important report on next month's election in Sudan, specifying how "Disenfranchisement of IDPs risks creating more conflict in Sudan."

The agency claims there are five million IDPs in Sudan, but the central government consistently counted low to counter arguments that conflict in the country is as bad as it is. That means that there could be dramatically fewer elected representatives per IDP population than there are per permanent habitants. That could also mean that if a community is expected to have X numbers of voters, there will be some consequence when X+Y number of voters arrive at the polls. More still, if people who are displaced have less ability to vote, this may continue to encourage those who wish to win local elections to forcibly displace those who would not vote for their candidate, particularly in areas where political parties run on ethnic lines.

Best case scenario, the international community ensures that Khartoum correct this, and prove it, and the population just remains skeptical. Worst case scenario, some ideologue seizes evidence of purposeful disenfranchisement and uses it to rally new insurgency efforts against Khartoum, which lead to Khartoum retaliating with greater force, reigniting yet more conflict.

Sudan's national elections take place next month. A referendum on independence for South Sudan comes next year. There is much, much peacebuilding and conflict mitigation yet to be done to ensure these go well. The stakes and risks are incredibly high, globally.

Photo credit: Daniel J Gerstle (Darfuri migrant workers in Khartoum, Sudan)